Extra virgin olive oil is back on Swiss shelves for under eight francs a litre. At origin, in the Spanish mills, a kilo costs around 3.16 euros in mid-October 2026 – a little over a third of the record set in January 2024. That raises a very practical question: has the price bottomed out, or does it pay to wait?

This piece separates the three levels that usually get mixed together. First, how far the price has fallen at origin. Second, how much of that actually reached Swiss consumers – considerably less than the headlines suggest. And third, what the two official estimates of the new Spanish crop, published on 29 September and 1 October 2026, actually say – and what they do not promise for the months ahead.

From 9 euros to a little over 3: the price at origin

In January 2024 olive oil was close to a speculative asset. Spanish extra virgin traded at around 8.90 euros per kilo, and the wholesale price in Jaén reached almost 9,000 euros per tonne. That was a record, and nearly three times the average of the years 2018 to 2022.

Two and a half years later, little of that is left. POOLred, the price information system run by the Fundación del Olivar, records actual wholesale transactions in Spain. Two weeks side by side show that the downward move carried on through October:

Category8–14 September 202613–19 October 2026
Extra virgin olive oil3.43 euros per kilo3.16 euros per kilo
Virgin olive oil3.26 euros per kilo2.99 euros per kilo
Lampante (not fit for consumption)3.14 euros per kilo2.88 euros per kilo
Picual from Jaén, extra virgin3.38 euros per kilo3.09 euros per kilo

Two caveats on those October figures. First, the market behind them is very thin: for the new campaign, ASAJA Jaén reports a single quotation that week, the one for extra virgin. Second, other observatories use other weeks and other samples and come out somewhat higher – the Junta de Andalucía quotes 3.25 euros per kilo for the week of 5 to 11 October. The spread does not change the finding: the price at origin sits roughly 65 per cent below the 2024 record, and it has gone on falling since September.

The reason is volume. Spain accounts for more than 65 per cent of EU production. After two seasons wrecked by drought and heat the crop recovered, and the 2025/26 campaign produced 1,298,000 tonnes. A market with full tanks and cautious buyers only moves one way.

What reached Switzerland: eight per cent

The Swiss Federal Statistical Office tracks olive oil as its own line in the consumer price index. In 2025 olive oil became 8 per cent cheaper, and the "edible fats and oils" group 6.1 per cent cheaper. With average annual inflation of just +0.2 per cent, olive oil was one of the noticeable reliefs in the Swiss basket. But eight per cent is not sixty.

Looking abroad shows the size of the gap. Across the EU, consumer prices for olive oil rose 78 per cent between 2022 and 2024, then fell 23 per cent in 2025 – the first decline after four years of increases. Spain posted the steepest fall at 38.9 per cent, ahead of Greece at 29.2 and Portugal at 24 per cent.

Germany shows olive oil lagging within its own aisle too. The Federal Statistical Office reported a 6.5 per cent year-on-year fall for May 2026, while edible fats and oils overall dropped 15.3 per cent and butter 29.1 per cent. Those figures are not directly comparable with the Swiss annual number – different period, different basket – but the pattern is the same: the raw material falls fast, the shelf falls slowly. For how Swiss shelf prices have moved over the past twenty-five years, see our analysis of olive oil consumption in Switzerland from 2000 to 2025.

Why the shelf reacts later and less

There are three understandable reasons. One caveat first: Swiss retailers do not publish their cost structure, so we can describe the mechanics but cannot put figures on the shares.

The oil is only part of the price of a bottle. Glass, closure, label, bottling, transport, storage, retail margin and marketing are all paid in francs and do not fall when the raw material does. The cheaper the oil gets at origin, the more those items dominate the shelf price – and the less a halving at origin can show up in the shop at all.

Buying runs over months, not days. Stock contracted during an expensive phase is sitting in the warehouse, and nobody sells below cost. The fall at origin therefore reaches the shelf with a lag.

Cuts come as promotions first. A promotion is reversible; a cut to the shelf price effectively is not. For shoppers that means the decline is real, but it appears on the promotion sign more often than on the price label. Compare the price per litre rather than the price per bottle and you will find it.

What is on the Swiss shelf today

We survey the entry-level and mid-range oils at the big chains ourselves. These positions are as of 30 September 2026; only the Denner entry was surveyed on 16 September:

ChainOilSizePricePer litre
MigrosM-Budget1 lCHF 7.95CHF 7.95
LidlPrimadonna0.75 lCHF 8.95CHF 11.93
DennerDivella1 lCHF 11.95CHF 11.95
Aldi Suisseorganic0.75 lCHF 9.95CHF 13.27
MigrosMonini1 lCHF 16.00CHF 16.00
Migrosorganic0.5 lCHF 11.40CHF 22.80

The floor is therefore around eight francs a litre, and it is a private label. That is the number every other bottle has to justify itself against. Which bottle we recommend at which chain is in Best olive oil in Switzerland: one bottle per chain.

Virgin onlyM-Budget Virgin olive oil, 1 l
Migros

M-Budget Virgin olive oil, 1 l

Origin on the label

CHF 7.951 L · CHF 7.95 per litre

Check price

The second figure is the notable one: organic no longer costs double. An organic oil at a little over thirteen francs a litre was outside what the entry-level segment offered three years ago.

The spread is the real finding. Between the cheapest and the most expensive litre in this selection lies almost a factor of three, and that difference is not consistently quality: Swiss and French-speaking Swiss tests have failed expensive bottles and rated cheap ones well. What those tests actually found is collected in our Swiss olive oil test round-up for 2026. The full table of current prices per litre, kept up to date, is on our prices page; one entry in it – the organic oil at Manor – still dates from September 2025: Manor does not sell food online, so that price can only be checked in store.

Buy now or wait? What the official estimate says

The figure is in. On 29 September 2026 the Junta de Andalucía presented its official estimate for the 2026/27 campaign in Mengíbar, Jaén: 1,261,200 tonnes of olive oil in Andalusia. That is 23.9 per cent above the final production of the previous campaign and 44 per cent above the average of the last five.

Two days later, on 1 October 2026, the Spanish agriculture ministry added the national estimate in Jaén: 1,602,596 tonnes for the whole of Spain, 23 per cent more than in the previous campaign. The ministry calls that a medium-to-high crop.

LevelOlive oil, 2026/27 estimateChange or share
Spain total (ministry, 1 Oct)1,602,596 tonnes+23 per cent on the previous campaign
of which Andalusia (Junta, 29 Sep)1,261,200 tonnes79 per cent of Spain; +23.9 per cent
of which Jaén575,000 tonnes36 per cent of Spain
of which Córdoba339,700 tonnes–
of which Sevillearound 142,000 tonnes–
Castilla-La Mancha152,000 tonnes+10 per cent; second-largest region
Extremadura97,300 tonnes+24 per cent

So the big crop is confirmed – but weaker than the field forecasts implied, which had pointed to 1.7 to 1.8 million tonnes for Spain as a whole. The Junta names the reason for the damping in Andalusia: a very wet winter helped the trees along, and temperatures far above the usual averages then capped the productive potential. The crop is not growing everywhere, either: the national aforo shows a decline for Catalonia, Aragón, the Balearics, Madrid, Murcia and Navarre. And it is explicitly a first estimate, to be revised as the campaign goes on.

For prices that means two things. Downward pressure persists well into 2027, because 1.6 million tonnes fill the tanks of a market that is already well supplied – and that was visible at origin in the three weeks after the estimate, as the price slid from 3.43 to 3.16 euros. But a second halving does not follow from it: the jump in crop volume is just under a quarter, not thirty to forty per cent, and the estimate has already made it public and priced in. October to January also still lie between the estimate and the mill – drought in that window has rewritten the forecasts more than once in recent years.

For a household the conclusion is unspectacular: stockpiling does not pay. Olive oil is not a tinned good but a fresh juice that loses polyphenols and aroma from the moment it is bottled. Buying six bottles to save two francs is a bad deal if the last one turns rancid. A sensible reserve is the quantity a household uses in six to nine months, stored dark and cool – our guide on how to store olive oil covers exactly how.

What is worth waiting for is not the price but the harvest itself. The oil of the 2026/27 campaign will be pressed from late October and reaches Swiss shelves in the weeks that follow. In the glass, the difference between a freshly pressed oil and one that has two crop years behind it is far bigger than the two francs at stake on price.

Frequently asked questions

Why has olive oil not fallen as far in Switzerland as in Spain?

Because in Switzerland a smaller share of the shelf price is the oil itself. Glass, bottling, transport, storage and retail margin are paid in francs and do not fall with the raw material. On top of that, purchasing contracts run for months, so stock from an expensive phase is still in the warehouse. In Spain the mill and the shelf sit closer together, so the fall passes through faster.

What is the minimum a litre of extra virgin costs right now?

In our survey of 30 September 2026 the cheapest litre is CHF 7.95, a private label at Migros. Organic oil starts at around CHF 13 a litre. Only the price per litre is comparable: a 0.75-litre bottle at CHF 8.95 looks cheaper than a one-litre bottle at CHF 11.95, but it is not.

Will olive oil get cheaper still in 2027?

The pressure stays on, but more weakly than hoped. The national aforo of 1 October 2026 puts Spain at 1,602,596 tonnes, 23 per cent above the previous campaign – a big crop, but not the 30 to 40 per cent the field forecasts of 1.7 to 1.8 million tonnes had hinted at. At origin the price has fallen further since, from 3.43 euros in September to 3.16 in the week of 13 to 19 October. Drought between October and January can change the arithmetic further, and in any case every movement reaches the Swiss shelf with a lag.

When was Spain's official crop estimate published?

In two steps. The Andalusian «aforo» was presented on 29 September 2026 in Mengíbar, in the province of Jaén, and covers Andalusia only: Jaén 575,000 tonnes, Córdoba 339,700, Seville around 142,000. The national estimate followed on 1 October 2026, also in Jaén, from the agriculture ministry: 1,602,596 tonnes for the whole of Spain. That is the number the wholesale trade steers by; it is a first estimate and will be revised as the campaign goes on.

Is it worth buying several bottles now?

Only up to the quantity you will use within six to nine months. Olive oil loses polyphenols and aroma over time, and a reserve that turns rancid costs more than it saves. If you buy on promotion, pay attention to the harvest date rather than the number of bottles.

Does a low price mean quality is getting worse?

Not necessarily. The fall comes from a large crop, not from lowered requirements. The Swiss tests do show that expensive bottles can fail, though: price is not proof of quality in either direction. What matters remains the harvest date, dark glass and your own smell test when you open the bottle.

Sources